“Hotan Incident: More questions than answers?”

China Letter has issued a very good review of the Hotan/Khotan incident, going into the timing and specifics of statements released by the various sides. After detailing some of the major inconsistencies, they conclude with their theory of what might have happened:

I am going to put my neck out here.

Something did occur on the 18th of July 2011 in Hotan, Xinjiang. There was, I believe, a demonstration in the city’s Grand Bazaar either planned or spontaneous. Being a non market day and given the reportedly few involved, I would suggest it was spontaneous. Police attended and, I would once again suggest, broke it up fairly roughly. This would be why a majority of the police on duty that day were reportedly away from the station supposedly “door knocking” when the attack on the police station occurred.

Whilst the majority of police were attending the bazaar a person, or persons, most likely Uyghur, gained entry into the police station, by whatever means, and caused a problem, the extent of which can not be, without reasonable doubt, ascertained. The only non aligned witness in all reports was the person RFA spoke to at the hospital and she could only confirm one seriously injured young soldier and one other injured person.

I would contend that there was not a major incident on the 18th to the extent it was reported. The government has, for whatever reason, attempted to cover up the real story. Whether someone had jumped the gun and grossly over reported a minor incident or that the Chinese Government was worried that the real story might emerge, that is, that what occurred was a successful takeover of a virtually unmanned police station by a small number of Uyghurs.

Their reason? Embarrassment and fear that the government’s cloak of invincibility would have been torn away and thus inviting far greater disturbances and with subsequent “social disharmony” on a rather large scale.

This sounds exactly right to me, almost exactly what my impressions were as well. I would go as far as to say that eventually footage of the bazaar protest will make its way out of China and confirm most of the story. We’ll see.